Drawing on author Maury Harris' long and successful career in the field of economic forecasting, Inside the Crystal Ball:How to Make and Use Forecasts (WILEY; January 2015) offers an insider's hands-on guide that can improve almost anyone's ability to make long-range business and investment decisions. Filled with illustrative examples and real-world situations, the book explains how and why forecasting practitioners succeed, and sometimes fail, to correctly predict the future.
“In my career I have witnessed many forecasting victories and blunders, which often had huge implications for the U.S. economy,” says Harris. “Every decade saw its own particular conditions – its own forecasting challenges. These events provide more than historical anecdotes: They offer fundamental lessons in forecasting. Readers of this book will live my four decades of experience and learn to apply my hard-learned lessons to their own forecasting.”
For the investor, Inside the Crystal Ball is a guide to demystifying the sometimes confusing and contradictory analysis of the future presented by pundits and professionals as support for investment decisions. Harris clearly illustrates how accurate forecasting is more about honing judgment of the underlying drivers than about proficiency in pure quantitative analysis—mathematics and statistics. In other words, a successful forecasting career is for all of us, not just the geeks.
The author reveals why some forecasters are more reliable than others and presents his successful approach to both the statistical and judgmental aspects of forecasting. Harris assesses four major competing schools of economic thought and sheds light on their strengths and weaknesses. The book also addresses long-standing forecasting challenges such as reliance on government information, shifting business sentiment and fickle consumers, as well as the newer challenges such as the New "Normal" and terrorism. In addition, Harris examines in detail the toughest challenge of all—the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates.
Harris adds, “Forecasting in the world of business, marketing, and finance often hinges on assumptions about the U.S. economy and U.S. interest rates. Successful business forecasters, therefore, must have a solid understanding of the way the U.S. economy works. And as economic forecasts are a critical input for just about all others, delving deeper into this discipline can improve the quality of predictions in fields such as business planning, marketing, finance and investments.”
Inside the Crystal Ball gives readers the confidence to originate, communicate, and evaluate advice about the future more effectively. Everybody forecasts and listens to forecasters, whether they are investors or not. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part of everyone’s life. Decisions about future outcomes are critical for success or failure in everything from marriage, career choices, business, and investments. No one always makes the right choices. Yet being right the majority of the time, especially for investors and businesses, is everyone’s goal.
Maury Harris is a Managing Director and Chief US Economist for UBS. Dr. Harris has led forecasting teams ranked as the most accurate in the country in four separate years over the past decade. In addition, he has been named numerous times to the Institutional Investor (II) All-America Research Team over the past two decades. Dr. Harris is a past President of the Forecaster's Club of New York. Prior to the UBS AG acquisition of PaineWebber Incorporated, he was the Chief Economist for PaineWebber. Before that, Dr. Harris worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and The Bank for International Settlements. Dr. Harris holds a PhD in economics from Columbia University, an MA in economics from Columbia University, and a BA in economics from the University of Texas, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is married with two children.
Contact the publicist:
Melissa Connors
Publicity Manager
mconnors@wiley.com
201-748-6834